Ethiopia Likely To See Moderate Increase In Role Of Government Sanctioned Non-State Actors Over The Next Five Years

Executive Summary:
Due to moderate levels of instability, minimal levels of democracy, small levels of doing business, and corruption levels comparable to that of totalitarian states, Ethiopia retains a score of 1 on the Government Sanctioned side of the non-state actor role potential spectrum. This indicates that it is likely that there is little, if any, role for lawful non-state actors because of significant levels of government control of the socio-political environment. Despite its score of 1 on the Government Sanctioned side, unlawful non-state actors reside in the country, including the Oromo Liberation Front, which is likely to its moderate levels of instability. However, it is likely that the role of lawful non-state actors in Ethiopia will increase moderately in the next five years. This is due in part to continued economic growth, privatization of state enterprises, and greater political freedom.

Analytic Confidence: 7
Source Reliability: 9

Discussion: Full Scale Conflict Unlikely To Resume Between Ethiopia And Eritrea

Discussion:

Overall Scores	Democracy Var.	Doing Bus. Var.	Corruption Var.
Failed States Var.	Geo Dis- NGOs	Geo Dis- Bus.	Geo Dis- Ter Grps.